机器人会导致我们失业？看完这篇我不怕了！

来源：本站原创时间：2017-06-28 19:15:11

现在机器人的存在越来越多，处于工业革命变革的时代，不禁有人发问：机器人最终会取代人类吗？机器人会发展到什么程度？本篇以双语的形式向大家介绍关于机器人那些事。

现在越来越多人着迷于研发各类机器人，而机器也的确能够代替人类承担很多工作，甚至现在在一些餐馆我们也看到过很多机器人来服务，有些甚至比人类做得更好。一个令所有人不安的问题应运而生了——机器何时会替代我的工作？

There are no certain answers, but some of the world’s top artificial intelligence researchers are trying to find out.The good news is that most of us will not lose jobs for the time being. Researchers predict that in the next 120 years, the machine has a 50% chance of replacing all human work.So what does this mean for the coming years and decades?

这个问题并没有确切的答案，但一些世界顶级的人工智能研究员正试图找出答案。好消息是，我们中的大部分人暂时都不会丢饭碗。研究人员预测，在未来120年内，机器有50%的可能性会取代人类所有工作。所以，对于未来几年甚至几十年，这意味着什么呢？

Increasing unemployment?

增加失业？

The survey shows that by 2021 the machine can be stacked toilet clothes, so, if you work in a self-service launderette, then will not be willing to admit it? Maybe not.

调查显示，到2021年机器就可以叠盥洗的衣物，这样的话，如果你在自助洗衣店工作，到时候会不会甘拜下风呢？或许并不会。

Machines that can fold clothes do already exist: roboticists at the University of California, Berkeley, have already developed a robot that can neatly fold towels, jeans and T-shirts.

其实会叠衣服的机器已经问世。加州大学机器人学家伯克利研发出了一款能够将毛巾、牛仔裤和T恤叠得十分整齐的机器人。

Although the robots picked up a towel in 2010 and looked at it for 19 minutes, it would have been able to stack a pair of jeans in 5 minutes, and 6 minutes for a T-shirt A little more. Perhaps the most exciting is that robots can even work for the tedious work of pairing socks.

虽然2010年时机器人拿起一条毛巾，审视一遍然后将其叠好需要花费19分钟，可是到了2012年，它用5分钟就能叠好一条牛仔裤，叠好一件T恤的时间也就6分钟多一点儿。也许最让人振奋的是，机器人甚至能胜任给袜子配对的乏味工作。

But despite this progress, it could be some time before robots like this are able to replace humans.

尽管取得了如此进展，这样的机器人要想取代人类仍需时日。

In the random and changing reality environment to operate the entity object to determine the content and manner of operation, the machine is really complicated. Tasks that do not require physical operation are easier to train.

在随机多变的现实环境下操作实体对象，确定操作的内容和方式，对机器来说着实复杂。不需要物理操作的任务更容易训练。

Robot mobility, such as autopilot cars and automatic distribution, may be at the same level as the Internet in the early 1990s. "It may be another 10 years to achieve automatic mobile technology around the world," he said.

机器人的机动性，比如自动驾驶汽车和自动配送等，所处的水平可能只相当于上世纪90年代初的互联网。怀亚特说：“要在全世界实现自动移动技术可能还要再晚10年。”

Friendly robot assistant

友好的机器人助手

Since the machine will be stacked towel to see the current problem is not, perhaps the truck drivers and retail practitioners think about them in the next 20 years out of the way. Researchers predict that by 2017, artificial intelligence would be able to drive trucks and could be engaged in retail work by 2031.

既然会叠毛巾的机器目前来看问题不大，或许卡车司机和零售从业者该想想他们在接下来20年的出路了。研究人员预测到2017年人工智能将能够驾驶卡车，到2031年可以从事零售工作。

The traditional retail assistant job is a friendly salesman in the store to help you find a pair of jeans and explain what it is wearing on the body look like. This kind of work requires complex physical and communication skills that may not be threatened for the time being.

传统的零售辅助工作是一个友好的销售员在店里帮你找到一条牛仔裤，为你讲解它穿在身上是什么样子。这种工作需要复杂的物理和沟通技巧，可能暂时不会受到威胁。

Fear not, fellow humans

不要害怕，人类同胞

Perhaps for the machine, the most difficult to master is often the human through many years of training skills proficient. These skills often include intuitive decisions, complex realities or abstract thinking, which are not good at the computer.

可能对于机器来说，最难掌握的往往是人类经由长年的训练所精通的技能。这些技能常常包括直觉决策，复杂的现实环境或抽象思维，这些都是计算机所不擅长的。

They also predict AI computers could be churning out New York Times bestselling novels by 2049.

专家还预测，到2049年，人工智能计算机还能大量创作出《纽约时报》最佳畅销小说。

In reality, machines are already dipping their digital fingers into this field too.

在现实中，机器也已经在数字科技方面涉足到这些领域。

Google is training artificial intelligence to write romance novels and news reports to help write the most creative content. A man named Benjamin's artificial intelligence robot has written a short sci-fi movie script, although a little foreword does not take the words. In addition, Automated Insights has developed an algorithm that provides millions of personalized news and financial services to companies such as Reuters and the Associated Press, Inc., a company that provides financing by the Associated Press and other investors. And sports coverage.

一直以来，谷歌都在训练人工智能写言情小说和新闻报道，以助于写出最有创意的内容。一个名叫本杰明的人工智能机器人已经写出了一篇短篇科幻电影剧本，虽然有点前言不搭后语。此外，Automated Insights公司也已经发明了一种算法，为路透社和美联社等公司提供数百万篇个性化新闻、金融和体育报道。

However, artificial intelligence robot creation is based on a formula generated in the formula, the information extracted from the large data set and inserted into the template to go. But artificial intelligence to create a rich language and the story of the fascinating best-selling novel, it may take three years. And the use of machines to write creative language in this way, often lead to meaningless results.

但是，人工智能机器人创作的小说是根据一个公式而生成的，在这个公式中，信息从大数据集中提取出来并插入到模板中去。但人工智能创作出语言丰富且故事情节引人入胜的畅销小说，可能还需要三年的时间。而利用机器写出创造性语言的这种方式，往往会导致毫无意义的结果。

Grace believes that the survey should make people realize that the world is in the tide of great changes. "I do not think any human skill is artificial intelligence can not be achieved technically," she said.

格蕾丝认为，这项调查应该让人们认识到，世界正处在巨大变革的风口浪尖。她表示，“我不觉得人类有任何技能是人工智能在技术上实现不了的。”

But she also believes that artificial intelligence can not completely replace all the work of mankind. Such as the priest in the church, if the worshipers need people to assume this role, the priest will never be replaced by the robot.

但她也相信人工智能不能完全取代人类的所有工作。比如教堂里的牧师，如果做礼拜的人需要人来承担这个角色，牧师就永远不会被机器人取代。

人工智能相关译词：

machine learning  机器学习

physical manipulation  物理操作

robotics  机器人学

chatbot  聊天机器人

self-driving  自动驾驶

algorithm  算法

formula  公式

large data sets  大数据集

template  模板；属性单元

intuitive decision making  直觉决策

abstract thinking  抽象思维

不管怎样，机器人的存在就是人类文明的进步，还是希望机器人的研发能够取得更大的成效。